Highlights
- •While national-level nursing supply is expected to grow in line with demand, significant differences are expected by region.
- •We find dramatic differences in expected growth of the number of full-time equivalent registered nurses per capita: from zero expected growth in New England and in the Pacific regions between 2015 and 2030 to 40% growth in the East South Central region (Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) and in the West South Central region (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana).
- •Slower growing areas such as New England have an older current workforce and slower recent workforce entry relative to exit.
- •The population of New England is also projected to be the most rapidly aging region, which could disproportionately increase demand at a time with slow expected growth in supply.
Abstract
Background
After an unprecedented increase in nursing school enrollment and graduates in the
past 10 years, projected shortages of nurses have been erased at a national level.
However, nursing markets are local, and an uneven distribution of health care providers
of all types is a longstanding feature of health care in the United States.
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to understand how the outlook for future registered
nurse (RN) supply varies regionally across the United States.
Methods
We apply our nursing supply model to the nine U.S. Census Divisions to produce separate
supply forecasts for each region.
Discussion
We find dramatic differences in expected future growth of the nursing workforce across
U.S. regions. These range from zero expected growth in the number of RNs per capita
in New England and in the Pacific regions between 2015 and 2030 to 40% growth in the
East South Central region (Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) and in the West
South Central region (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana).
Conclusion
Assuming growth in the demand for RNs per population, some regions of the United States
are expected to face shortfalls in their nursing workforce if recent trends do not
change.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: July 12, 2016
Accepted:
July 4,
2016
Received:
May 30,
2016
Identification
Copyright
© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
